AFCON 2017

[Kevin S]

G-Man's video of the Hlompho Kekana goal made me realise we don't have an AFCON thread.

Tournament will be in Jan-Feb 2017 in Gabon. The hosts qualify and the other 51 teams play in 13 groups (a dozen fours and a three, with Gabon playing friendlies against the team in the smaller group who have a bye round).

Hosts plus thirteen winners plus best two runners up make the finals.

Runners up from smaller groups are not eligible to qualify, which has already eliminated one big fish: Nigeria. This is because Chad withdrew from their group, and now after expunging the results for the Chad games, Nigeria cannot catch Egypt, who have themselves therefore qualified, as have Morocco.

In group M, South Africa sit in third after four of the six games and need to catch either or both of Mauritania and Cameroon to make the finals.

Wiki page on the qualifiers here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Africa_Cup_of_Nations_qualification

[Southport Zeb]

AFCON 2017

Egypt haven't qualified quite yet - but I'll admit its unlikely that Tanzania will get the big win they need over the Egyptians (or in the last match in Nigeria).

[Kevin S]

AFCON 2017

Update: Five of the six matches have now been played. Final ones are 2–4 September.

There are now ten qualified teams, including the hosts:

Gabon
Morocco
Algeria
Cameroon
Senegal
Egypt
Ghana
Guinea-Bissau
Zimbabwe
Mali

Guinea-Bissau are making their AFCON debut while Zimbabwe are making a return after absence since 2006.

Left to play for: four group winners

Group A, Tunisia v Liberia - the top two in Group A will meet in their final group game; level on points and the second placed team may make it as a best runner up

Group B, DRC v CAR - also a top two going head to head; DRC have a two point advantage and again the runner up may still qualify

Group D, Burkina Faso / Uganda - level on points and GD. BF host Botswana, Uganda host Comoros and again the runner up here could be one of the best two

Ivory Coast v Sierra Leone - going head to head, IC with a one point advantage. The second placed team will not be eligible to qualify as a best placed runner up (three team group). So the holders still have a bit of work to do.

Two best runners-up

It is likely to be two from the runners up in Groups A, B and D and Cape Verde. Cape Verde cannot win their group, but are only one point behind the second placed teams in the groups mentioned above. so could with a win overtake two of them to become one of the best two. (Edit: in fact a win will put them through, as two of the groups have a 1st v 2nd head to head)

There are some other possible runners up currently a point or two further back from Cape Verde, but their odds of qualifying are vanishingly remote.

Nigeria, South Africa and 2012 champions Zambia have all failed to qualify for AFCON 2017, as have the 2015 hosts and semi finalists Equatorial Guinea.

[G-Man]

AFCON 2017

Nigeria were a bit fucked over by the withdrawal of Chad, making it impossible for them to qualify as one of the best runners-up.

Bizarrely, Ethiopia might qualify despite having lost 7-1 to Algeria. I rather hope Swaziland make it, to join Guinea-Bissau as unlikely qualifiers.

As for South Africa, they should have beaten Cameroon, and losing to Mauritania was embarrassing, as was drawing 0--0 at home against Gambia. It's a pity; the world needs a player with the name Rivaldo Coetzee.

[Kevin S]

AFCON 2017

Oh, I've missed something important out in my checking of the second placed teams: Benin have a game in hand!

[Southport Zeb]

AFCON 2017

Benin may play their game in hand (at home to Equatorial Guinea) on Sunday. The game was postponed because Benin are currently suspended by FIFA. They need to meet various conditions by Saturday for the suspension to be lifted. If this does not happen then the CAF will make a decision - I suspect Equatorial Guinea would be awarded the win.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

AFCON 2017

UEFA look on sagely at what happens when you divide 52 teams into 13 groups of 4, and thinks to itself "no, we'll stick with 9 groups of 5 or 6, thanks. And have 24 finalists, just to make sure. And even then the bloody Dutch can't be trusted to get through".