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    Unexpected taxi conversation

    In a cab in Podgorica, Montenegro.

    Driver (thick accent, reasonable English): Where are you from?
    Me: England. Cambridge.
    Driver: Ah you like football? [Not the normal reaction when I mention Cambridge, I have to say]
    Me: Yes
    D: I like Manchester United
    Me: Mm-hmmm. (thinks: Oh, how original)
    D: Your home town team are very good
    Me: (surprised) Cambridge Utd?
    D: Yes, they are top of the league
    Me: they are in the fifth division.
    D: yes, but top
    Me: No, I'm sure they aren't [wonders what's going on here]. I think Aldershot are.
    D: Ah yes, Aldershot. But they lost yesterday, to Salisbury.
    Me: Really? [Incredulous at the fact that a Montenegran taxi driver should have this information at his fingertips]
    D: Yes, but I think still top.
    [Driver's phone rings]
    D: (stream of Slavic conversation) blah blah blah Gil Vicente blah blah blah (apparent expletive) blah blah Gil Vicente blah blah blah. [Hangs up]
    Me: Did you say Gil Vicente?
    D: yes, I am betting.
    Me: Do you want them to win or lose?
    D: I need someone to score in the first half. That's all.
    Me: [Speechless]
    D: All Montenegrans are betting very much. Today big problem, lot of betting in French league. I hate this league, not good results.
    [Phone]
    D: Blah blah blah. Gil Vicente nula nula? (excited) blah blah blah. (Hangs up). Gil Vicente score. Very good.

    It went on like this for some time more with reference to Salamanca, getafe and AEK Athens, all of whom he also had money on. The number of betting shops here is insane though. They're like Starbucks in the average US city.

    #2
    Unexpected taxi conversation

    How do we think the logistics of this kind of thing work?

    Even if Montenegro is betting mad, I can't see each betting shop having a sufficiently large clientele to enable it to create its own book on the likes of Gil Vicente to score in the first half.

    Do they just use odds supplied by someone like bwin, discounting them to cover their own running costs, profit margin and any credit-related risk they may take, immediately placing the equivalent bet with bwin?

    The business model seems rather tenuous to me (though that may well be true of most economic activity in Montenegro).

    Comment


      #3
      Unexpected taxi conversation

      Betting is a completely alien world to me, and I'm glad as owt this is the case. Given my former love of feeding pound coins endlessly into flashing, mechanical, money-whores, I reckon I would spend far too long in the bookies if I understood what was going on.

      Comment


        #4
        Unexpected taxi conversation

        This seems as good a place as any to ask a question that has been running around my head for a long time. Is there any difference between stock market trading and sports betting?

        I'm phrasing it facetiously but I'd be interested in serious answers. If nothing else it will change my mental picture of market traders as chancers.

        Comment


          #5
          Unexpected taxi conversation

          Gamblers tend to be much more responsible, as they are betting their own money.

          Comment


            #6
            Unexpected taxi conversation

            Well, if one is actually trading in stocks, one will have acquired an equity interest in the relevant company (same for bonds, which are essentially IOUs). Those interests have a certain intrinsic value (even following bankruptcy, in many cases (especially for bonds), which is not at all the case for a losing bet.

            But if you are just talking about cash-settled option trading, then there is no real intrinsic difference other than what is being bet on and the way the market is set up and regulated.

            Comment


              #7
              Unexpected taxi conversation

              On the other hand, the market will tend to rise steadily, meaning there's an expected average profit.

              Books will not be set up in the punter's favour, so there's an expected average loss.

              Comment


                #8
                Unexpected taxi conversation

                Though benefitting from that effect tends to require a rather long time horizon.

                And the costs of securities transactions can be just as debilitating to one's pocketbook as your local bookie's vigorish.

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                  #9
                  Unexpected taxi conversation

                  I was thinking more betting exchange rather than high street bookies. However, they do take a percentage and the book is not in your favour.

                  Bonds and stocks having intrinsic value and the likelihood of dividends had managed to pass me when I was comparing the two.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Unexpected taxi conversation

                    I regularly get asked to provide online betting companies with J-League and even Japanese non-league information, which absolutely staggers me. Apparently, though, there are people round the world just waiting to bet on something - anything, even Sony Sendai against New Wave Kitakyushu.

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                      #11
                      Unexpected taxi conversation

                      Ad Hoc - hang on, I thought you were from Sheffield?

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Unexpected taxi conversation

                        I think Adhoc and Noj's parents were from Sheffield, thus their inherited support for Wednesday.

                        The Black mountaineers against Yugoirlandia in September should be interesting. I take the homesters to sneak it 2-1.

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