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Biggest Ever Declines By National Teams

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    Biggest Ever Declines By National Teams

    Talk of Latvia on the NL thread has led me to wonder as to biggest falls down rankings (official or unofficial)* in the history of the international game. Netherlands obviously had a massive one when they failed to even make a play-off. Northern Ireland have sunk very low at various times since the Billy Bingham years. I'm not sure if England have ever been below Top 25 realistically even if the rankings say otherwise, although the Euro 2008 failure was perhaps an exception given they couldn't make a 16 team Euros. Scotland's fall took a while because they made playoffs in Euros 2000 and 2004.

    Hungary's decline was largely due to the political destruction of their 50s team after the Soviet invasion, although they were still fairly useful in 1978 (but lost 4-1 to England in a friendly). Uruguay kept winning in South America when not doing well in World Cups.

    *Has anyone ever calculated or estimated international team rankings for each era of the game? It's been done in cricket but that requires far less data, and all Tests have equal weight whereas in football you have to put asterisks against some friendlies that may have really involved reserve squads.
    Last edited by Satchmo Distel; 17-11-2020, 14:01.

    #2
    Greece between 2004 and that Ranieri period must have been one of the steepest

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      #3
      How much does continuity matter? The USSR team were regulars in the last 8 or so of World Cups. Russia have had seven goes, failed to qualify three times and only made it out of the group once.

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        #4
        Here's Greece's ranking graph. They fell from 13th at the end of 2013 to 41st two years later. That seems pretty fast. They are now at 54

        https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-rank...ation/GRE/men/

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          #5
          Originally posted by Satchmo Distel View Post
          Talk of Latvia on the NL thread has led me to wonder as to biggest falls down rankings (official or unofficial)* in the history of the international game. Netherlands obviously had a massive one when they failed to even make a play-off. Northern Ireland have sunk very low at various times since the Billy Bingham years. I'm not sure if England have ever been below Top 25 realistically even if the rankings say otherwise, although the Euro 2008 failure was perhaps an exception given they couldn't make a 16 team Euros. Scotland's fall took a while because they made playoffs in Euros 2000 and 2004.

          Hungary's decline was largely due to the political destruction of their 50s team after the Soviet invasion, although they were still fairly useful in 1978 (but lost 4-1 to England in a friendly). Uruguay kept winning in South America when not doing well in World Cups.

          *Has anyone ever calculated or estimated international team rankings for each era of the game? It's been done in cricket but that requires far less data, and all Tests have equal weight whereas in football you have to put asterisks against some friendlies that may have really involved reserve squads.
          Wikipedia does mention Elo historical rankings based on the chess equivalent, but unsure as to how scientific it can be considered.

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            #6
            Latvia https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-rank...ation/LVA/men/

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              #7
              Romania and Bulgaria must have had a couple of hard-fall periods from their mid-90s heyday

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                #8
                On FIFA's scale, Romania;s big fall was 2007 (13th) to 2010 (56th)
                https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-rank...ation/ROU/men/

                Bulgaria 2009 (30th) to 2011 (84th)

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                  #9
                  Steepest I've seen so far is Costa Rica 2005 (21st) to 2006 (68th) https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-rank...ation/CRC/men/

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                    #10
                    Mexico and Columbia have both been ranked pretty highly in the past but rarely get anywhere in international tournaments.

                    Norway, Finland and Iceland were all whipping boys in the 70s but present as difficult opponents now. Czechoslovakia win the Euros in 76 then fail to make Argentina 78 after losing to the Scots.

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                      #11
                      Austria prefigured Hungary in the precipitous decline largely occasioned by non-football events category before the rankings existed.

                      Mexico have won eight CONCACAF Gold Cups (and several more of its predecessors), so their underperformance in tournaments is very much a World Cup thing.

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                        #12
                        Wales must surely be the steepest ascent, from 117th in 2011, to 8th in 2015:

                        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wales_..._football_team

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                          #13
                          Originally posted by Foot of Astaire's View Post
                          Mexico and Columbia have both been ranked pretty highly in the past but rarely get anywhere in international tournaments.
                          Much like Scotland can never get past a group stage, Mexico famously never make it past the 2nd round of the World Cup.

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                            #14
                            Apart from when they're the hosts, of course, so will make the quarters again in 2026.

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                              #15
                              The Faroe Islands were 198th in 2008 but peaked at 74 in 2016 after their two wins over Greece. They are 107 at the moment.
                              Last edited by fatbear; 17-11-2020, 15:15.

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                                #16
                                My initial thought was probably one of the African nations who qualified for a single World Cup, such as Togo or Angola. But whilst they've had steep falls it's nowt on Kuwait's consistent plunge...

                                From 24th to 189th in under two decades

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                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Diable Rouge View Post
                                  Wales must surely be the steepest ascent, from 117th in 2011, to 8th in 2015:

                                  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wales_..._football_team
                                  They went from a qualifying play-off defeat against doped up Russians in 2004 to 117th in 2011. So a bit of a steep fall as well.

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                                    #18
                                    What's more curious about Mexico is that they never fail to get out of their group, and often fall in the second round in very good games against decent teams (v Argentina in 2006, for example, one of the best games of that tournament). And have often been one of the best teams in the group stages (as they were in 2002 and 2018). Indeed given how open the 2002 tournament was, you wonder whether they might have made the final had they not put in such a spectacularly ill-disciplined brain-wrong of a performance v the USA

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                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Foot of Astaire's View Post
                                      Mexico and Columbia have both been ranked pretty highly in the past but rarely get anywhere in international tournaments.

                                      Norway, Finland and Iceland were all whipping boys in the 70s but present as difficult opponents now.
                                      Norway has been more of a rise and fall - had a brief golden period of qualifying for the World Cups of 1994 (at England's expense of course) and 1998, and Euro 2000, and were as high as 3rd in 1993 (and then maybe just as surprisingly 12th in 2010). They are 43rd now, in a sequence that goes Northern Ireland, Australia, Norway, Romania, Scotland.

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                                        #20
                                        NI haven't had steep declines- our peaks have been more modest than the troughs. However the sudden transformation from 3 wins from 42 in 2009-14, to winning a group the following year, is worth a mention

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                                          #21
                                          Ireland have had two steep declines - from #9 in 1994 to #56 in 1998 and from #22 in 2011 to #67 in 2013.

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                                            #22
                                            I think Scotland’s decline has been slow but increasingly significant. From qualifying for 5 World Cups in a row (1974 to 1990) and 6 out of 7 (missed 1994 but qualified in 1998) and then not qualifying for the next 5 world cups is pretty alarming. And latterly not even being close to qualifying.

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                                              #23
                                              Wales were the "best mover" of 2011 in that Wiki link above. Czech Republic were No. 1 in 2005 in that elo system (2 on FIFA) and England were so at the eve of Euro 88 so would be examples of declining from No. 1 to DNQ in six years.

                                              England's lowest FIFA ranking was 21 (1995). The Czechs are currently at their lowest ever ranking.

                                              The elo No. 1s since 1966 seem fairly accurate and Hungary's dominance in the 50s is accurately reflected. They were useless for predicting future performance because the No. 1 often flopped in the forthcoming tournament.
                                              Last edited by Satchmo Distel; 17-11-2020, 16:29.

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                                                #24
                                                Belgium (currently ranked #1) failed to qualify for 5 successive tournaments (2004-12). In 2010 their record was worse than Belarus, Latvia and Lithuania

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                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Ek weet nie View Post
                                                  Ireland have had two steep declines - from #9 in 1994 to #56 in 1998 and from #22 in 2011 to #67 in 2013.
                                                  I think Ireland might’ve been as high as 5th or 6th at the tail end of 1993.

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