A Barrow-load of laughs - Division 4 2020/21

[jwdd27]

In truth, probably a good season to miss...

Likewise. A sliver of hope is that Laws had a flirting with relegation season and we got promoted a season later, after a handful of solid signings. We need an Andy Crosby figure for sure.

[slackster]

This will be the first season in almost 50 years I’ve not seen 1 live game in the flesh. Only bothered to stream 2 Orient matches too, and didn’t bother watching any live TV games either. Normally I’d expect to be mortified by this, and though it’s true I’ve missed a pint and chinwag with mates/fellow fans - especially as I’ve now moved away and won’t be a regular in E10 any more - but I’m surprisingly really not at all fussed.

In truth, probably a good season to miss...

[Foot of Astaire's]

I'm finally now coming round to the idea that Bolton will go up. Which, compared to the start of the season, is quite a turnaround.

Kiss. Of. Death.

[Stumpy Pepys]

I'm finally now coming round to the idea that Bolton will go up. Which, compared to the start of the season, is quite a turnaround.

[Gangster Octopus]

So, there's still a possibility of two Essex teams going down or two Lincolnshire teams going down. I could live with the former...

[ingoldale]

Who cares if it is a stay of execution - yesssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss!

[jwdd27]

Scunthorpe slumped to a 22nd defeat of the season, which keeps us on the fringes of the relegation picture - Grimsby need to keep winning and Scunthorpe to keep losing, and the second of those is well in hand. We should be fine, but as alluded to upthread, I'm sure Lincoln fans thought the same when their team was in 19th at this stage in 1987, although they were only 5 points clear of Burnley in the single relegation place.
Scunny's next two games look eminently loseable, away at play off hopefuls Newport on Tuesday and at Bradford on Saturday.
Grimsby have a slightly less tricky trip to play off outsiders Exeter, and then are home to Port Vale next weekend.

Barrow are a point behind Scunny so they have Southend chasing them down as well.

It will be decided next Saturday, he typed hopefully.

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

We have a chance to get the point we officially need on Tuesday when Carlisle come to Whaddon Road, but I feel like we're already there now. Even when we lose we never get hammered - unless we play Barrow - and I don't see Morecambe or Tranmere scoring enough to affect the swing needed.

Win on Tuesday and the title is in one hand as well. I don't care about that though.

The biggest challenge you are going to face on Tuesday is making sure you don't run out of balls as our keeper repeatedly launches them into the next postcode while our manager stands on the touchline bollocking him for not kicking it hard enough.

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

Barrow is in Cumbria, isn't it?

It is, but in name only, and only since the 1970s - there is still much resentment about it there, I believe.

However I wasn't objecting on their behalf, but on Carlisle's behalf, as our nickname is The Cumbrians, and theirs is The Bluebirds.

Carlisle fans will sing "We are Cumbrians" and "Cumbria My Lord", but you'd never hear either of those sung by Barrow fans.

[Simon G]

We have a chance to get the point we officially need on Tuesday when Carlisle come to Whaddon Road, but I feel like we're already there now. Even when we lose we never get hammered - unless we play Barrow - and I don't see Morecambe or Tranmere scoring enough to affect the swing needed.

Win on Tuesday and the title is in one hand as well. I don't care about that though.

[Janik]

Barrow is in Cumbria, isn't it?

As for Exeter and Newport, that can has been kicked down the road.

Cheltenham are virtually up after today's results. A 13 goal difference swing is not insurmountable if it involves two defeats for the side ahead and two wins for the one behind - it is, after all, only just a shade over 3-0 in each game which are realistic results. But it's unlikely. For similar reasons one more point will likely suffice to put Cambridge beyond the reach of Morecombe and Tranmere... if those teams ever reach Cambridge's current total of 77 points. Which one highly likely won't and it's quite possible neither manages.

And the can is kicked down the road at the bottom as well. Barrow will be in Cambridge's position, alternating between 'Guys, we are comfortable and we will get it done, and even if we don't others will probably hand it to us' and 'We really need to win next week or it could all get really nervy and painful'

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

better Barrow's result as matching it just leaves them 9 points and -~24 GD behind the Cumbrians

Good analysis all round but "objection!"

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

Meanwhile Exeter can take the last playoff place back from Newport if they beat them at St James Park. A Newport win, however, all but snuffs out any final hope of that.

[Janik]

Possibilities for tomorrow

Cambridge
Promoted with a win over Stevenage
Effectively up with a draw against Stevenage if Bolton win at Morecombe

Cheltenham
Effectively up if they beat Colchester and Bolton win at Morecombe

Morecombe vs Bolton
The biggie on the day.
A win for Bolton and they would be within touching distance of promotion.
A win for Morecombe and they would lead by two points and at least +4 Goal Difference, making them pretty strong favourites.
But if it's a draw, then Tranmere can re-join the promotion race by beating Barrow; those results would leave Rovers just a point behind Morecombe and two behind Bolton, with a goal difference that was no worse than Bolton's. Meaning that if Bolton and Morecombe each had another draw in their last two, Tranmere would claim third by winning out... unless Forest Green, who are 3 points behind Tranmere but with a game in hand, also win all their remaining games. Oh, and Newport, with the best goal difference of the bunch already, could also get to within three points of third by beating Exeter tomorrow and then winning their game in hand!
It all says that a draw is a poor result for both Morecombe and Bolton.


And at the bottom

Southend
Down if they don't beat Leyton Orient
Effectively down even if they do beat Orient, if Barrow get a point at Tranmere. Or actually relegated even with a win if Barrow also win at Tranmere and both Scunthorpe and Colchester get a point (against Walsall and at Cheltenham respectively).

Grimsby
More convoluted, but mathematically down if they lose at Oldham and Barrow get a point or more at Tranmere.
However also (due to goal diffrence) effectively relegated if they lose at Oldham, regardless of what happens elsewhere.
To retain any sort of faint shot at a dramatic escape, Grimsby really need to better Barrow's result as matching it just leaves them 9 points and -~24 GD behind the Cumbrians with just one game to play. It gets more complicated if the Mariners win as that then brings Scunthorpe and Colchester back into the equation.

[Baptiste]

Managed to win 1-0 in a dull game with no shots on target. Sums up the season really.

[jwdd27]

Scunny got stuffed 3-0 at Mansfield in the night's least do-or-die fixture. Although defeat does mean they can still "do a Lincoln" and go down if Grimsby win their last 4. Unlikely as the Cods have 3 away games out of 4, the last of which is Cambridge's probable coronation.


Some great stats in the table.
Top scorers? Oldham in 15th place, 70 goals. Conceding 72 has been their problem - they have the best attack and the worst defence.

Talking of defence, likely doomed Southend have conceded just 55 goals, two less than promotion possibles Morecambe. They've only managed to score 24 themselves though, comfortably the worst in the division. Barrow just above them are also on 55, in fact only 3 teams (Grimsby, Colchester and Oldham) have conceded more than Morecambe, although Scunny have conceded the same.

Salford in 9th have the best defence (33 conceded), Cheltenham second best on 36, and then come Stevenage, who are 16th despite conceding just 38 goals in 43 games. Haven't scored many though.

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

I was expecting Carlise to look jaded due to their fixture congestion but by the end it was us that looked out on our feet. Chuffed with the 3 points but our form and insistence on trying to walk it in rather than have,you know, a bloody shot once in a while, leaves me feeling pretty pessimistic for Saturdays crunch match.

Yes we gave it a decent go in the second half, without the quality to actually capitalise on the number of times we got the ball into the box (I wouldn't go so far as describe them as chances in most cases). A few of our players/subs were coming back from spells out of the team, so had a bit more energy, and if we had employed a bit more rotation a while ago who knows where we would have been.

[Foot of Astaire's]

Carlisle tonight confirmed their intention to withdraw from this breakaway - by - another - name known as the play offs. We want no part of that, thanks very much. We stand in solidarity with our brethren in Barrow and confirm our commitment to remaining in League Two.

With Simon G heading out of the picture I can get on and start thinking of puns for next season's thread.

I was expecting Carlise to look jaded due to their fixture congestion but by the end it was us that looked out on our feet. Chuffed with the 3 points but our form and insistence on trying to walk it in rather than have,you know, a bloody shot once in a while, leaves me feeling pretty pessimistic for Saturdays crunch match.

[Gangster Octopus]

There could be all the legions of otf Sutton fans who might beat you to it...

To Walt Flanagans Dog...

[Janik]

Oh yes, Forest Green drew, didn't they? That has dropped the target to 79 points for both, that being the highest number Morecombe can get incorporating a draw with Bolton.

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

Carlisle tonight confirmed their intention to withdraw from this breakaway - by - another - name known as the play offs. We want no part of that, thanks very much. We stand in solidarity with our brethren in Barrow and confirm our commitment to remaining in League Two.

With Simon G heading out of the picture I can get on and start thinking of puns for next season's thread.

[Simon G]

After tonight (on the field) it is the only way they are going to survive. And events this afternoon off the field suggest they don't bank too heavily on it.

Make Or Break Tuesday was so at the bottom of the Division then. Less so at the top as very atypically for this league the leading sides pretty well all turned in good results. Six of this morning's top eight won, with the other two being the only two to play each other (tautologous to point out they drew). However at this stage of the season everyone winning isn't as you were, it actually benefits incumbents as there is a game less left for everyone to play to close gaps. So a great evening for Cambridge and Cheltenham then, who now need three points from three games and five from four respectively.

Taking into account goal difference, 4 points will be enough for Cheltenham.

[Paul S]

Southend lost to rivals Colchester in a gutless display getting a man sent off. We are down in all but name after 100 years of football league history. The strange thing is I really don't care, maybe covid and the last year have put things into perspective but all the people I know are still alive and I have lost only one former work colleague to covid. I just want normality back and I don't care whether we win lose or draw I just want to go to games again.

[Janik]

After tonight (on the field) it is the only way they are going to survive. And events this afternoon off the field suggest they don't bank too heavily on it.

Make Or Break Tuesday was so at the bottom of the Division then. Less so at the top as very atypically for this league the leading sides pretty well all turned in good results. Six of this morning's top eight won, with the other two being the only two to play each other (tautologous to point out they drew). However at this stage of the season everyone winning isn't as you were, it actually benefits incumbents as there is a game less left for everyone to play to close gaps. So a great evening for Cambridge and Cheltenham then, who now need three points from three games and five from four respectively.

The race for third is less clear than the positions of the top and bottom two, but the set up for Morecombe-Bolton at the weekend is fascinating. If either side wins that game they would be favourites to go up, particularly if it is Bolton given they will kick off a point ahead of Morecombe; a win and they are four clear with two games to play. However the ordinary thing in clashes like this is a draw is a satisfactory result for both as it kicks the can down the road, but that doesn't quite apply here because if this game is a draw that result potentially opens the door back to a slew of other sides who at the moment look out of contention. In fact it probably reaches down to Exeter in seventh for sides who could nip in if they were to win out their remaining games and neither of Morecombe or Bolton make the most of their situation.

[Satchmo Distel]

A lifeline for the bottom two?