No More Sarri - Premier League 2019/20

[Patrick Thistle]

3 tiers of Wolves fans at the Etihad apparently. Good thing there's always plenty of seats available there.

[Bootleg Mark Chapman]

That's the third time since June that Choudhury has injured an opposition player with a bad tackle, following his potential leg breakers against France in June and Newcastle in August. That's some collection to have in four months, and you'd hope someone is having a word with him.

[Toby Gymshorts]

Something something not that kind of player something something.

[3 Colours Red]

Maybe that magnificent head of hair is affecting his balance.

[Eggchaser]

Sheik Mansour can you hear me? We have beaten Manchester City 2-0, we have beaten the Champions Noel Gallagher, Ian Curtis, Bernard Manning, Kevin Kennedy, Julie Hesmondhalgh, Justin Fletcher, Mark Radcliffe-We have beaten them all. We have bearen them all. Sheik Mansour your boys took a hell of a beating a hell of a beating.

Don't forget Phil Foden (even if Guardiola has).

[Ray de Galles]

I listened to R5's coverage of the Premier League a lot more than normal over the weekend as I was ferrying children around for much of it.

When did it become absolutely dominated by viewing the top tier through the prism of fantasy league football and niche stats of the "expected goals" (and worse) variety?

Added to the usual chummy "banter", now expressed in what seems like a deliberately loose podcast style, it is ever more unlistenable.

I saw a comment on twitter about the fantasy league obsession so presume it's a new development? I used to dabble in a league with friends (as opposed to the newspaper versions) myself in the nineties and noughties but don't recall it ever being referenced on the radio so repeatedly.

It seemed they were going for an angle like Baddiel & Skinner's old show (not that that was ever really about fantasy football) even down to having someone in the studio called "Stat Man Dave".

Can their target audience not connect with football directly any more and require a link with it through the fantasy game or, even worse, betting which dominates most other media outlets coverage?

[Capybara]

I remember there being a regular programme on Radio 5 about fantasy league when it became a thing back in the early 90s and I've been in a proper league since then. I first noticed this manifestation a couple of weeks ago and thought at the time it was just a passing reference. But this week demonstrated it probably wasn't and, as you say, it made the programme practically unlistenable.

[Patrick Thistle]

Mrs Thistle watched MOTD2 with me last night and asked "What's this expected goals thing?" in a tone normally reserved for "Who tracked dogshit into the living room?"

[Satchmo Distel]

Apparently the Radio 5 Fantasy League early 90s show was presented by Ross King then Dominik Diamond. I have very vague memories of Diamond being a knob-end on it whereas King was Mr Bland.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Mrs Thistle watched MOTD2 with me last night and asked "What's this expected goals thing?" in a tone normally reserved for "Who tracked dogshit into the living room?"

How did you explain it?

[Nocturnal Submission]

I think he blamed it on one of the neighbours.

[Patrick Thistle]

I just went "Oh, don't get me started on that bollocks..." and that got me out of having to explain it.

[Arturo]

Apparently the Radio 5 Fantasy League early 90s show was presented by Ross King then Dominik Diamond. I have very vague memories of Diamond being a knob-end on it whereas King was Mr Bland.

This was the early forerunner to Baddiel and Skinner's TV version and I remember it as pretty uninspiring. I seem to recall Diamond getting pulled up for calling fans of one club "vermin" (possibly Arsenal) and having to apologise later.

I gave up on 5 Live long ago when they more or less tossed aside top of the table Championship/Division Two games for mid table Premier League clashes, and then ignoring the second tier altogether in favour of endiess chat about transfer 'gossip' and the dreaded "talking points".

Plus interminable combos of Green/Lawrenson and Green/Savage

[Nocturnal Submission]

Blimey. Dominik Diamond. There's a name I haven't heard in a while.

Now DJing in Canada, apparently.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

I just went "Oh, don't get me started on that bollocks..." and that got me out of having to explain it.

You should have given it a go. It's a good test of whether or not you understand something.

I am fascinated by the hostility the idea provokes. particularly given its centrall importance as a concept in modern football. Most half way tactically competent teams are trying to maximise their expected goals for and minimize their goals against over the course of a season. It's why people pass rather than chance a long range, low probability shot, and it's why teams cross the ball along the ground rather than lumping it into the box.

[Lang Spoon]

Blimey. Dominik Diamond. There's a name I haven't heard in a while.

Now DJing in Canada, apparently.

Fuck me. Like a live action Stuart Campbell he was, I don't think I'll mourn his loss to these shores.

[Patrick Thistle]

The Awesome Berbaslug!!! Tbh I don't understand it. I must have missed the briefing. Same as with the sudden importance of possession stats.

[Snake Plissken]

"Big chances" is apparently a statistical category now.

[Felicity, I guess so]

Possession stats: It used to be called “all over them/hardly had a touch”

[3 Colours Red]

Blimey. Dominik Diamond. There's a name I haven't heard in a while.

Now DJing in Canada, apparently.

And found God... well, he is a Celtic fan.

[Snake Plissken]

IIRC, he was taking part in some documentary or other where he was following people re-enacting the crucifixion - in the Philippines I think. Apparently he was going to join in up until the point at which he saw that they were actually nailing people to crosses.

[Nocturnal Submission]

The Awesome Berbaslug!!! Tbh I don't understand it. I must have missed the briefing. Same as with the sudden importance of possession stats.

Here we go: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/40699431

[Janik]

I'm bemused by people's bemusement with expected goals. It seems quite straightforward to me.

It's trying to rectify a situation where the previous stat used was so crude as to be actively misleading. That stat being shots on/off target. This counts your centre back having a rush of blood to the head and slashing at a shot from 45 yards which nearly hits the corner flag while the crowd groans in complete exasperation at how they could make such a stupid decision exactly the same as your leading scorer curling a shot round the 'keeper and fractionally wide of the post. Expected goals differentiates those by analysing based on past outcomes how likely each playing situation was to end up with a goal being scored. The centre forward, stood where she was and taking that shot against a 'keeper thus positioned scores 4 times out of 7 attempts. The centre back gets lucky once in every 10,000 goes. One adds 0.57 to the XG tally for the game, the other 0.00 rounded to 2 d.p. The qualitative judgement that everyone already makes ('got to shoot from there' vs 'you utter dingbat') has been turned into a sensible quantitative value.

It therefore gives a good impression of which team has been more effective in creating chances. Comparison with the final score then tells you whether a side has been very efficient* or wasteful, whether when a manager claims 'we deserved to win that' they are speaking accurately or being one-eyed in just remembering the single half chance their side had whilst forgetting the bunch of near sitters the opposition butchered.


* - the XG of Leicester's recent 5-0 thrashing of Newcastle was only ~1.5 from memory. Some teams that have those same chances could very well end up with no goals at all (most will get one or two, of course). Rather than analysing based on outcomes, which is generally a back-to-front way of doing things, it does so on performance. Newcastle were not as bad that day as they were portrayed, nor Leicester as good. Their finishing was sharp, or fortunate in a couple of cases, though.

[Sporting]

Is it used only with teams or individual players?

[Ray de Galles]

As per the link below, individual players too - which reminds me of the old Crespometer (though it's clearly not measuring the same thing).

Here we go: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/40699431

I'm bemused by people's bemusement with expected goals. It seems quite straightforward to me.

I "get" expected goals, I just don't find it particularly interesting or illuminating.