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Oscars 2020 Hopes and Expectations

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    Oscars 2020 Hopes and Expectations

    It's Oscars weekend. I've seen all the best pic nominations and a handful of other actor and actress ones.

    Here's the honest trailers.



    I have a feeling that the voters are going to go for "most" rather than best: Joaquin Phoenix overblown Joker and Sam Mendes's clever editing are going to win Actor and Director. At least The Irishman, despite being the most film, is not going to win best pic.

    Anyway:

    Best Pic:

    Expect 1917
    Should be Parasite

    Best Actress: (Haven't seen most of these because, as always, the women led films don't get nominated for best pic)

    Expect Zellweger for Judy
    Should be Saoirse Ronan for Little Women(of the ones I've seen)

    Best Actor:

    Expect Phoenix for Jokes
    Should be Pryce (for Two Popes)

    Best Director

    Expect Mendes for 1917
    Should be Bong Joon-ho for Parasite

    Best Supporting Actor

    Expect Pitt for Once Upon A Time
    Should be Pesci for Irishman

    Supporting Actress

    Expect Dern for Marriage Story
    Should be either Dern or Pugh (for Little Women) who were both very good

    International Feature

    Only saw Parasite (which should win if it wins best pic)

    Original Screenplay

    Expect 1917
    Should be Parasite (with noteworthy mention for Knives Out)

    Adapted Screenplay

    Expect Joker
    Should be Jojo Rabbit

    Other stuff, I have no qualification really to judge or didn't see enough of. Except to say that all three of the animated shorts that I've seen are brilliant. I don't want to give Pixar more love but Kitbull is great.

    #2
    Looks like your "shoulds" did pretty well in the end.

    I dipped in and out of the coverage (convenient time zone), mostly rolling eyes at the celebs (low point: Cats in costume) but then when Parasite won, I succumbed to a wee sniffle and a tear. Genuinely moving moment.

    And Taika of course.

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      #3
      I am both amazed, and delighted that lots of people who wouldn't have bothered to see a subtitled film are now probably going to go and watch one of the best pictures I've seen in years.

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        #4
        Tremendous that Parasite did so well. Wish Little Women got more recognition (Saoirse Ronan for Best Supporting Actress and Greta Gerwig for Director/Screenplay), but largely happy. Would have had Pesci or Pacino over Brad Pitt, though find it scandalous that Zack Gottsagen didn't even get nominated for Best Supporting Actor. Don't think he was nominated in any awards, which is a shame as The Peanut Butter Falcon is a lovely film. Happy for 1917 to be recognised for technical stuff and for Roger Deakins to get his second Best Cinematography Oscar.

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          #5
          Is that the first time a foreign language film has won best picture?

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            #6
            Yes.

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              #7
              I'm and fan of his and appreciate it's a divisive movie but am pretty shocked Taika Waititi won an Oscar for his fourth best film (at best, I haven't seen 'Boy' and 'Eagle vs Shark') and that it was for Adapted Screenplay - given that one of the film's biggest faults is the script and the clunky manner in which the original material was handled.
              Last edited by Ray de Galles; 10-02-2020, 12:38.

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                #8
                I believe it was Neon that distributed it, so they deserve a lot of credit for believing it could win and making the effort to campaign for it.

                Oscars usually require a campaign - the stars and directors go to parties and festivals and all the talk shows. I don’t recall the producers of a non-English film ever working so hard on the campaign as the Parasite people did, even though they needed an interpreter.

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                  #9
                  Netflix mounted a huge campaign for 'Roma', didn't they? Though they didn't have a personality like Bong Joon-ho to focus on for chat shows and the like, obviously.

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                    #10
                    Yeah, that is exactly right. Also, I don’t think as many people really loved Roma as much as Parasite. Parasite is dark and sad at the end, but it’s got a lot of funny bits and moves along quickly. One might call it “snappy.”

                    I couldn’t make through Roma. I could see that it was just going to be heartbreaking. It might be a masterpiece, but it was such a tough sit. I never had a chance to see it in a theater, though.

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                      #11
                      I think that's fair - Roma is the kind of film that people who love auteury films like. It's beautiful and heartbreaking and personal. But it's also very slow and is low on action and the drama is generally quiet personal drama and it takes a long time to get there. It's just never going to get a huge audience - audiences aren't that patient. Parasite is different: it's fast, and it's funny, and there's all kind of actual action, and there's not a whole lot of long lingering slow takes.There are very few people who I wouldn't recommend Parasite to, but there are lots who I think would get bored silly by Roma.

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                        #12
                        Yeah, though I wasn't really comparing the actual films - just the scale of the campaigns behind them both being at a new level for Foreign Language/International Oscar candidates.

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                          #13
                          Roma also had to overcome the Academy's backlash against streaming distribution.

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                            #14
                            Yeah, and The Irishman and Uncut Gems appeared to suffer from that this year too.

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                              #15
                              Uncut Gems is made by Netflix but is only distributed in cinemas in the US so far. Irishman, Two Popes and Marriage Story are the ones that the academy will have seen as streaming.

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                                #16
                                Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post
                                Uncut Gems is made by Netflix but is only distributed in cinemas in the US so far.
                                That was specifically to be Oscar eligible, no?

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                                  #17
                                  Yeah...has to appear for 7 days on a minimum of 4 screens or something.

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                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post
                                    Uncut Gems is made by Netflix but is only distributed in cinemas in the US so far.
                                    It's been on Netflix since last Friday.

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                                      #19
                                      Oh! I kept looking up reports of whether it was going to drop, and the reports all said that it was probably a year out.

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                                        #20
                                        If I'd known it was coming to Netflix so soon, I probably would't have seen it in the theater, but I'm glad I did.
                                        Maybe it's not on US Netflix yet. I've let my subscription lapse because there wasn't anything I really wanted to see right now. Same with HBO. The Outsider or whatever it's called just doesn't appeal to me.

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                                          #21
                                          It's definitely on UK Netflix. Watched it last week.

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                                            #22
                                            Yeah, it was on UK Netflix right from the start. It was in the US that they were talking about holding it back and having it behave like a traditional theatrical release.

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                                              #23
                                              No, Uncut Gems went on UK Netflix on Jan 31st after a few weeks in the cinemas here, which is where I saw it.

                                              Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post
                                              Uncut Gems is made by Netflix but is only distributed in cinemas in the US so far. Irishman, Two Popes and Marriage Story are the ones that the academy will have seen as streaming.
                                              I very much doubt that the Academy voters with prejudices against Netflix trouble themselves with the intricacies of what limited cinematic release a film gets before it gets streamed. They'll just see it's a Netflix production and, consciously or not, it affects their vote.

                                              Anyway, I was under the impression The Irishman also got a limited exclusive cinematic release in the US prior to being streamed, as it did in the UK, as that was a condition Scorsese had in his deal with Netflix.
                                              Last edited by Ray de Galles; 12-02-2020, 15:59.

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                                                #24
                                                Thought so ;

                                                Netflix Sets November 1 Theatrical Bow For Martin Scorsese-Directed ‘The Irishman:’ 27-Day U.S. & UK Rollout Comes Before Pic Streams For Thanksgiving Holiday

                                                In fact, 'Marriage Story' had the same four weeks exclusively in the US cinemas ('Two Popes' had three) so all of the films followed pretty much the same release model.
                                                Last edited by Ray de Galles; 12-02-2020, 15:59.

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                                                  #25
                                                  Not many US cinemas. My understanding is that if you don't live in New York or LA or maybe a few other places, you have to watch it at home.

                                                  I'm farily confident that far more people will see all of those films under this model than if they tried to just release them in theaters and then wait three to six months to put them on streaming services.

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